NASA Lowers Impact Risk of ‘City-Killer’ Asteroid 2024 YR4
Chances that 2024 Y4 will hit Earth have been lowered, but risks remain.
(Washington, D.C.) NASA has significantly reduced the estimated risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth, lowering the probability to 1 in 67; the announcement came via NASA’s “X” account, @nasa, yesterday (on Feb. 19) after new orbital data was analyzed.
Image of the 2024 Y4 asteriod courtesy of NASA Spaceflight.
"New observations of asteroid 2024 YR4 helped us update its chance of impact in 2032," reads the @nasa post on X. "The current probability is 1.5%. Our understanding of the asteroid’s path improves with every observation. We’ll keep you posted."
The 2024 YR4 asteroid, which measures about 196 feet (60 meters) wide, according to Space.com, briefly held the highest risk rating ever recorded by NASA’s Sentry Risk Table. On Feb. 18 – just a day before yesteday’s update – the asteroid’s impact probability had been raised to 1 in 32 (3.1%), causing concern among scientists and the public. However, further observations allowed researchers to refine its trajectory, reducing its threat to 1.5%, according to a blog post on NASA’s website.
Asteroid hunter and operations engineer for the University of Arizona’s Catalina Sky Survey, David Rankin, who first identified 2024 YR4 in archival data, told Space.com: “There is the possibility this would eject some material back out that could hit the Earth, but I highly doubt it would cause any major threat.”
NASA also shared that its ability to find unknown asteroids will improve in the future due to its Near-Earth Object Surveyor mission, which is set to launch sometime in 2027. The mission will use infrared technology to detect hidden asteroids and comets through its space-based position, which will enhance ground observatories tracking near-Earth objects.
Despite its revised risk profile, 2024 YR4 remains at the top NASA’s Sentry Risk Table. Scientists emphasize that continued tracking will further clarify its path in the future.
