NASA Lowers Impact Risk for Asteroid 2024 YR4, Now Considering Close to 100% Chance of Missing Earth
The impact risk for Asteroid 2024 YR4 is now close to a 100 percent chance of missing Earth in 2032, according to Space.com.
(Washington, D.C.) NASA has significantly lowered the impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4, reducing concerns about a potential collision with Earth in 2032, according to Space.com.
Image of asteroid 2024 YR4 courtesy of Science Magazine.
Initially, the probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth was raised to 1 in 32 last week — making it the most hazardous asteroid ever recorded by NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS). However, new orbital data has revised the risk down to just 1 in 360 (0.28%), and is now updated on NASA JPL’s Sentry page.
The 180-foot-wide asteroid’s hazard level on the Torino scale, which assesses asteroid impact threats, has dropped to Level 1, meaning there is no immediate cause for public concern. Experts expect further observations will likely reduce the risk to zero, per Space.com.
Despite this adjustment, 2024 YR4 remains at the top of NASA’s Sentry Risk Table, followed by asteroid 1950 DA, which has a 0.039% chance of impacting Earth in 2880. There is also a small, 1% chance that 2024 YR4 could strike the moon, according to New Scientist.
Astronomers predict the asteroid will become visible again in 2028, according to Space.com, allowing for additional tracking.
